Tuesday, August 17, 2010

New Entry - ADSK


Alright now - NO WHAMMIES!!!!

The markets gave me the bullish entry signal (which was a cross up out of the oversold area of the stochastics). Of course, you don't SOLELY rely upon just one item, you gotta look for other items to confirm the move. Take a look at the markets below:

In addition to the stoch crossing up out of the oversold zone we also have:
1. The proceeding 3 days the bears could not get the market prices to go any lower (i.e. the bulls are here - at least for now).
2. An opening gap in all 4 markets
3. After the open all 4 markets proceeded higher
4. 3 of the 4 markets traded above their 50 day moving average (except for that slacker IWM).

So, now that the markets are showing a BOUNCE, it's time to get into a bull play. This is going to be a short play - maybe 2-5 days. I'm not looking for any prices to shoot to the moon, I'm simply looking for a pullback from this bearish short term trend.

I did a search for stocks that were above their 50, 200, and 20 day moving averages (i.e. all the stocks that are stronger/leading the markets) and stocks that had been oversold and have their stochs just coming up out of the oversold zone. This basically means that momentum has stopped going down and the bulls are coming back in and momentum will now go up - at least in the very short term.

After searching, I got my best candidate - ADSK, here's the chart:

I'm looking for decent open interest in the call volume and therefore I'm going with an October 26 Call. So we have TONS of time, but again, I'm only thinking a few days. I figure on prices going up about 6% from here on this bounce up to the 30 level. But we'll let the market's tell us when to get out because in the end - IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT I THINK, IT ONLY MATTERS HOW THE MARKET TRADES.

So, I'm long ADSK October 26 Calls at $3.12

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