Wednesday, March 2, 2011

MDR - took early profits


GLORY TO GOD - ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL TRADE!

Check out the chart of MDR:

A nice boost from earnings. Now, you are probably saying to yourself, "Why in the world would this guy take profit now instead of letting it go up to his target? He's got until the 3rd Friday in MAY before the option expires, so he has tons of time and not that much further to go?" Okay, I get your point.

However, the market is a bit screwy right now and I'd rather capture this profit rather than the possibility of the market making a huge drop and take it all back - and possibly even giving me a loss. We'll get into all this in a minute, but first, let's go over the results of the MDR trade.

Originally bought this option back on Feb. 2nd for $3.00 and sold it today for $4.90, which is a NET of $1.90. This gives me an ROI of 63% in approx 1 month. Sweetness, that's a nice trade.

Okay, now let's move onto the markets, here's the chart:
The top left is SPY, top right is DIA, bottom right is IWM, bottom left is QQQQ. This gives us a snapshot of the last month of trading. You can see that we made a new high, then came back down and touched a minor area of support and bounced a bit back up.

However, after bouncing back up, we had a big down day and then a bit sideways today. So, I'm thinking here we can go two ways:

1. We can either go lower than the last low (most recent blue circle) and if we do that then I'm going bearish on trades. I will go bearish because we will have a lower high and will get a lower low.

Or

2. We bounce back off this area again (notice 50 day moving average is immediately below us) and we go up to new highs. I will look to enter bullish trades if we get back above the big black candle.

So, the market is a bit wishy-washy right now and until it makes up it's mind where it wants to go, then I'm going to sit tight. Remember - I only trade when I have an edge and right now I don't feel there's a good edge for me in the market. But it should make up it's mind within then next few days or so. Right now, we relax and wait.

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