Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Which way do we go???



Still waiting on the market to make up it's mind before I put on new trades. Currently, I don't have a single trade working. I've been waiting for the market to make up it's mind on which direction it wants to go.

Broken record time - "I don't get into a trade unless I have an edge." Since the last post, there still has not been an edge for me, so I've just been waiting.

Here's the chart:

You can see that after consolidating sideways (outlined with green lines), the market dropped lower. Maybe it was because of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, maybe it was because of the attack on Libya - I don't really care WHY when it comes to trading - all I know is that the price dropped. In any case, the price dropped and has come back up a bit.

Here's what I see in the chart: we had a new recent high, then a pullback, then sideways consolidation. After consolidation the bears won over the bulls and price dropped. The bulls came in and drove price back up - however on decreasing volume (so I'm not so convinced on a bullish move at this point - yet).

At this point, we're getting close to a possible BEAR entry. If we roll over from this point, then I'll look for a move lower in the market. If you look closely at the chart above, you'll see that we have a high, a low, a lower high (in the consolidation zone), and have had a lower low. So, what trend is lower lows and lower highs? Bearish.

But, we could also go higher and right back into a bull trend from here. It's kind of a tricky area and before getting into any new trade, I want some good confirmation and I WANT AN EDGE before I jump back into the market. I'm in it to make money, not gamble.

We wait...

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